Strategy & Value ยท STR-05
Horizon scanning and external expectations
The organisation tracks changes in AI technology, regulation, peer practice and public expectation, and feeds what it finds into its AI strategy.
Why it matters
AI capability, rules and public attitudes are changing faster than most planning cycles. An organisation that does not look outward will find its strategy overtaken, or will learn of a new obligation or a better approach from someone else.
Levels
| 0 Absent | Confirmed absent: the evidence shows nothing is in place. Not known is recorded as insufficient evidence, not 0. |
|---|---|
| 1 Initial | No organised scanning; individuals follow developments informally and share them ad hoc. |
| 2 Developing | Some scanning happens, for example a newsletter or occasional briefing, but it is not linked to strategy decisions. |
| 3 Defined | An owned horizon scanning activity covers technology, regulation, peers and public expectation, produces regular output and informs strategy decisions. |
| 4 Managed | Findings are logged with the action taken on each, and the time from a relevant external change to a strategy response is tracked. |
| 5 Optimising | Scanning anticipates change well enough that the organisation acts ahead of it, and the scanning sources and method are reviewed against how useful they proved. |
Level 3 criteria
Level 3 is met when every applicable criterion is met. Criteria marked with an overlay apply only to organisations with that characteristic (overlays).
- STR-05.1 A defined horizon scanning activity covers AI technology, regulation, peer practice and public expectation.
- STR-05.2 The scanning activity has a named owner.
- STR-05.3 The scanning activity produces output on a regular cycle.
- STR-05.4 Scanning findings are considered in strategy decisions.
Assessment questions
- How does the organisation keep track of changes in AI technology, regulation and practice elsewhere?
- Who receives the findings, and can you show a strategy decision that one of them changed?
- How do you find out how the people you serve feel about AI being used?
- Horizon scanning outputs, such as briefings or a log of developments
- Records showing findings were considered by the forum or in strategy papers
How to reach Level 3
- Name an owner for horizon scanning and agree the four areas it covers: technology, regulation, peer practice and public expectation.
- Choose a small set of sources for each area and set a regular cycle, such as quarterly, for reviewing them.
- Produce a short regular summary of what has changed and what it could mean for the organisation.
- Put each summary on the agenda of the forum or person that makes AI strategy decisions and record what was decided (see STR-08).
Common pitfalls
- Collecting news without saying what it means for the organisation.
- Scanning only technology and missing changes in regulation or public expectation.
Starter artefacts
- Horizon scanning source list by area
- Quarterly horizon scan summary template
Ownership and sequence
- Accountable
- ai governance lead
- Contributors
- risk lead, delivery lead, security lead
- Depends on
- None
- Roadmap step
- 1
- Lifecycle
- strategy
Cross-references
| ISO/IEC 42001 | 4.1 partial |
|---|---|
| JSP 936 Part 1 | para 25 partial |
| MITRE AI Maturity Model | P2.2 partial; P4.1 partial |
| NIST AI RMF 1.0 | GOVERN 1.1 partial |
| UNESCO AI Maturity Framework | 1.5 partial; 4.4 partial |
direct: this control at Level 3 meets the item. partial: it covers part of it.